European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 26 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 18 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 18 games
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 15 games
Sand King
mellojul · 15 games
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 15 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 37 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 36 games
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 35 games
Disruptorsignature
Se · 34 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 34 games
Bristleback
Nefrit · 31 game
Puckoften banned
Worick · 31 game
Warlock
MoOz · 29 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
595 picks · 813 bans
Tiny
533 picks · 549 bans
Tusk
428 picks · 396 bans
Warlock
426 picks · 295 bans
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1021 bans
Ember Spirit
382 picks · 661 bans
Mars
370 picks · 588 bans
Centaur Warrunner
349 picks · 518 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total70% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:43
Team Lynx 39%Zero Tenacity 61%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 1:03:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin7jesu
LifestealerKami
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
Night StalkerNefrit
Sand Kingmellojul
ViperWorick
Shadow DemonQBFY
JakiroMoOz
Dazzlekreker
Nyx AssassindEsire
Game 2prediction correct27:53
Team Lynx 40%Zero Tenacity 60%
The model gave 60% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 36:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
RazorKami
Clinkz7jesu
TidehunterNefrit
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
Sand KingWorick
Tuskkreker
HoodwinkdEsire
LionQBFY
JakiroMoOz
Game 3prediction missed42:31
Team Lynx 39%Zero Tenacity 61%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 45:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa7jesu
WindrangerKami
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
ViperWorick
Primal Beastmellojul
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Jakirokreker
PhoenixMoOz
MarciQBFY
MuertadEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 70%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3