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EPL Masters III · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 39 games
49%
Techies
Techies
kreker · 29 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 22 games
41%
Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 21 game
52%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 19 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
mellojul · 18 games
61%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
QBFY · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolier
VladikTheHtiviy · 15 games
33%

Zero Tenacity

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 25 games
68%
Bane
Banesignature
MoOz · 24 games
71%
Techies
Techiessignature
dEsire · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nesfeer · 23 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 22 games
36%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 22 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
raregods · 19 games
42%
Undying
Undyingsignature
MikSa` · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
512 picks · 328 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
436 picks · 235 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
398 picks · 178 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
347 picks · 317 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 501 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 286 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
285 picks · 130 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
284 picks · 506 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head7 – 4
Model total57% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:17
Team Lynx 58%Zero Tenacity 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 34:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magev1olent-
61% · 32 games59% · 109 games
Svennesfeer
Sven
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightVladikTheHtiviy
48% · 179 games50% · 275 games
DoomNefrit
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritmellojul
53% · 345 games45% · 238 games
Earth Spiriterase
Earth Spirit
Mirana
Miranakreker
48% · 180 games45% · 424 games
Windrangerraregods
Windranger
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
53% · 553 games44% · 243 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed18:41
Team Lynx 54%Zero Tenacity 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 46:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverv1olent-
48% · 64 games51% · 176 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Dark Seer
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
51% · 157 games49% · 156 games
Earth Spiriterase
Earth Spirit
Slardar
Slardarmellojul
44% · 268 games43% · 126 games
BrewmasterNefrit
Brewmaster
Windranger
WindrangerQBFY
51% · 295 games47% · 243 games
Dark Willowraregods
Dark Willow
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorkreker
60% · 96 games58% · 179 games
Winter WyvernHduo
Winter Wyvern
Game 3prediction correct49:43
Team Lynx 58%Zero Tenacity 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 1:00:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slarkv1olent-
52% · 55 games46% · 113 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomVladikTheHtiviy
59% · 128 games47% · 61 game
Sand Kingerase
Sand King
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritmellojul
45% · 96 games47% · 105 games
BrewmasterNefrit
Brewmaster
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernkreker
62% · 87 games49% · 205 games
Ringmasterraregods
Ringmaster
Windranger
WindrangerQBFY
53% · 210 games39% · 92 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 57%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3