Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO1
result vs prediction
Team M11loss 0:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:1
GEGrindSky Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team M11
No games played over 6 months.
GrindSky Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
479 picks · 666 bans
Tiny
467 picks · 492 bans
Bane
456 picks · 278 bans
Sand King
431 picks · 580 bans
Dragon Knight
382 picks · 453 bans
Storm Spirit
380 picks · 640 bans
Pangolier
363 picks · 565 bans
Ember Spirit
349 picks · 602 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team M11
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% GrindSky Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team M11 40%GrindSky Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on GrindSky Esports — the game was taken by GrindSky Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteGrindSky Esports · 60%
Series resultGrindSky Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1