Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team M11win 2:1series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lilgunloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team M11
No games played over 6 months.
Lilgun
Tusksignature
ace12 · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 4 games
Tiny
ace12 · 4 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
423 · 3 games
Clockwerk
Se · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
eleven · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
423 · 2 games
Marsoften banned
eleven · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
352 picks · 252 bans
Marci
316 picks · 556 bans
Undying
284 picks · 466 bans
Tusk
280 picks · 189 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 427 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 509 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 293 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 105 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 26%
Hero pool strength57% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:12
Team M11 33%Lilgun 67%
The model gave 67% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Team M11 in 35:33.
Game 2prediction correct19:25
Team M11 33%Lilgun 67%
The model gave 67% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 40:45.
Game 3prediction missed35:24
Team M11 33%Lilgun 67%
The model gave 67% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Team M11 in 42:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 67%
Series resultTeam M11 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3