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FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMaloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team MagMa

No games played over 6 months.

Aster.Aries

Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 5 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Fantasy · 3 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 3 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fantasy · 3 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
生死 · 2 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
phoenix · 2 games
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 694 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
322 picks · 406 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
271 picks · 476 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
252 picks · 212 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
226 picks · 337 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
226 picks · 124 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 641 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 441 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:25
Team MagMa 43%Aster.Aries 57%
The model gave 57% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 36:37.
Game 2prediction correct28:43
Team MagMa 43%Aster.Aries 57%
The model gave 57% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 52:54.
Game 3prediction correct6:23
Team MagMa 43%Aster.Aries 57%
The model gave 57% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 28:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 57%
Series resultAster.Aries 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3