The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBZSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
LBZS
Earth Spiritoften banned
CatYou · 17 games
Tusk
CatYou · 14 games
Marssignature
Irving · 8 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 7 games
Grimstroke
xiaofu · 7 games
Lion
CatYou · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
CatYou · 7 games
Sand King
Irving · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
473 picks · 190 bans
Snapfire
376 picks · 207 bans
Mars
364 picks · 586 bans
Puck
358 picks · 871 bans
Grimstroke
331 picks · 308 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 446 bans
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 409 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Team MagMa
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total52% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:9
Team MagMa 52%LBZS 48%
The model gave 52% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by LBZS in 30:19.
Game 2prediction missed23:15
Team MagMa 52%LBZS 48%
The model gave 52% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by LBZS in 34:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 52%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2