SAPPHIRE OGA Dota PIT China Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:0series probability
6%94%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Banesignature
y` · 23 games
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xiao8 · 17 games
Tidehuntersignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 16 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 13 games
Iosignature
XinQ · 13 games
Lycansignature
Faith_bian · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
549 picks · 376 bans
Queen of Pain
474 picks · 569 bans
Mars
451 picks · 619 bans
Weaver
432 picks · 811 bans
Snapfire
365 picks · 170 bans
Kunkka
343 picks · 543 bans
Spirit Breaker
340 picks · 573 bans
Wraith King
281 picks · 340 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 79%
Hero pool strength64% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total94% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:26
Team MagMa 6%LGD Gaming 94%
The model gave 94% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:21.
Game 2prediction correct16:31
Team MagMa 6%LGD Gaming 94%
The model gave 94% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 26:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 94%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2