SAPPHIRE OGA Dota PIT China Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:1series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Snapfire
Fantasy · 23 games
Banesignature
Fantasy · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 21 game
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 20 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 18 games
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 17 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
554 picks · 371 bans
Queen of Pain
483 picks · 579 bans
Mars
451 picks · 611 bans
Weaver
427 picks · 779 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 181 bans
Kunkka
352 picks · 551 bans
Spirit Breaker
345 picks · 578 bans
Wraith King
290 picks · 354 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total76% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:9
Team MagMa 24%Team Aster 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 31:34.
Game 2prediction correct29:8
Team MagMa 24%Team Aster 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 28:00.
Game 3prediction correct40:36
Team MagMa 24%Team Aster 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 1:00:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 76%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3