PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTMTeam Magnanimousloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
JustBetterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Magnanimous
No games played over 6 months.
JustBetter
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 3 games
Doomoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
Hoodwink
Astral · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
Luna
Focus · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
410 picks · 658 bans
Mars
388 picks · 621 bans
Lion
386 picks · 358 bans
Techies
385 picks · 312 bans
Batrider
369 picks · 801 bans
Tiny
366 picks · 423 bans
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 356 bans
Hoodwink
339 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 35%
Hero pool strength55% Team Magnanimous
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% JustBetter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:14
Team Magnanimous 38%JustBetter 62%
The model gave 62% on JustBetter — the game was taken by JustBetter in 22:02.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Magnanimous 38%JustBetter 62%
The model gave 62% on JustBetter — the game was taken by JustBetter.
Model check result
Model favoriteJustBetter · 62%
Series resultJustBetter 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2