Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Magnusloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Magnus
Pangoliersignature
txhyoo1 · 6 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Mark · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mark · 5 games
Disruptor
Chen · 4 games
Lunaoften banned
Jack · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
txhyoo1 · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Sakata Gintoki · 4 games
Clockwerk
Chen · 3 games
5RATFORCESTAFF
Medusaoften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 3 games
Bane
Overlom · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
red2 · 2 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
TingleK1ng · 2 games
Abaddon
Overlom · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
red2 · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
TingleK1ng · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
345 picks · 501 bans
Snapfire
304 picks · 172 bans
Bane
293 picks · 234 bans
Weaver
282 picks · 635 bans
Monkey King
256 picks · 728 bans
Tidehunter
256 picks · 391 bans
Ember Spirit
225 picks · 309 bans
Disruptor
221 picks · 141 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Team Magnus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:36
Team Magnus 48%5RATFORCESTAFF 52%
The model gave 52% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 33:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingJack
MedusaITALIANO GANGSTA
Ember SpiritMark
Dark SeerTingleK1ng
Grimstroketxhyoo1
Queen of Painred2
JakiroChen
Snapfirebgod
48% · 72 games
BaneOverlom
Game 2prediction correct24:52
Team Magnus 48%5RATFORCESTAFF 52%
The model gave 52% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 40:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerJack
MedusaITALIANO GANGSTA
Queen of PainMark
Ember Spiritred2
Spirit Breakertxhyoo1
Legion CommanderTingleK1ng
Outworld DestroyerChen
Skywrath Magebgod
50% · 56 games
BaneOverlom
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 53%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2