Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Magnuswin 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DTDuck Talesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Magnus
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 7 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Jack · 6 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Mark · 6 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mark · 6 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
txhyoo1 · 5 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Sakata Gintoki · 5 games
Weaver
Chen · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Jack · 3 games
Duck Tales
Medusaoften banned
Reynauld · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Oklahoma · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
Oklahoma · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Reynauld · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
468 picks · 646 bans
Tiny
468 picks · 504 bans
Bane
441 picks · 270 bans
Sand King
421 picks · 554 bans
Storm Spirit
355 picks · 601 bans
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 411 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 816 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Duck Tales
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Duck Tales
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:20
Team Magnus 49%Duck Tales 51%
The model gave 51% on Duck Tales — the game was taken by Team Magnus in 51:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageJack
TerrorbladeReynauld
Ember SpiritMark
Storm SpiritOklahoma
Miranatxhyoo1
SnapfireChen
Game 2prediction correct17:40
Team Magnus 49%Duck Tales 51%
The model gave 51% on Duck Tales — the game was taken by Duck Tales in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaJack
MorphlingReynauld
Ember SpiritMark
PuckOklahoma
Phoenixtxhyoo1
TechiesChen
Game 3prediction missed32:25
Team Magnus 50%Duck Tales 50%
The model gave 50% on Duck Tales — the game was taken by Team Magnus in 48:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeJack
Templar AssassinReynauld
Void SpiritMark
TinyOklahoma
Death ProphetChen
Iotxhyoo1
Model check result
Model favoriteDuck Tales · 51%
Series resultTeam Magnus 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3