Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Magnuswin 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HHHoly Highloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Magnus
Queen of Painoften banned
Mark · 6 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Jack · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
txhyoo1 · 5 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Sakata Gintoki · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mark · 5 games
Weaver
Chen · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Jack · 3 games
Holy High
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 621 bans
Tiny
459 picks · 498 bans
Bane
434 picks · 269 bans
Sand King
415 picks · 539 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 809 bans
Storm Spirit
349 picks · 578 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 519 bans
Dragon Knight
345 picks · 384 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Holy High
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Magnus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:13
Team Magnus 54%Holy High 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Team Magnus in 43:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaJack
BatriderP1
Ember SpiritMark
Death ProphetChen
Miranatxhyoo1
Game 2prediction missed19:38
Team Magnus 51%Holy High 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Holy High in 37:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistJack
MarsP1
Void SpiritMark
Tinytxhyoo1
BaneChen
Game 3prediction correct28:31
Team Magnus 52%Holy High 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Team Magnus in 1:01:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingJack
TinyP1
Ember SpiritMark
Phoenixtxhyoo1
GrimstrokeChen
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Magnus · 56%
Series resultTeam Magnus 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3