Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Magnusloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KBU.USwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Magnus
Pangoliersignature
txhyoo1 · 6 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Mark · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mark · 5 games
Disruptor
Chen · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Jack · 4 games
Jakiro
Chen · 4 games
Lunaoften banned
Jack · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
txhyoo1 · 4 games
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
369 picks · 546 bans
Bane
333 picks · 258 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 201 bans
Weaver
315 picks · 708 bans
Monkey King
252 picks · 757 bans
Tidehunter
249 picks · 387 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 153 bans
Ember Spirit
235 picks · 329 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Team Magnus
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Team Magnus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:31
Team Magnus 51%KBU.US 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by KBU.US in 35:59.
Game 2prediction missed13:32
Team Magnus 51%KBU.US 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by KBU.US in 25:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Magnus · 51%
Series resultKBU.US 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2