FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionTMTeam Mansafwin 1:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:0
AMalpha mantisloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Mansaf
Crystal Maiden
Nagato · 3 games
Elder Titan
Nagato · 2 games
Marcioften banned
islA · 2 games
Muerta
islA · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
islA · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
islA · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
islA · 1 game
Pugnaoften banned
Nagato · 1 game
alpha mantis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
469 picks · 397 bans
Phoenix
467 picks · 578 bans
Batrider
451 picks · 554 bans
Clockwerk
432 picks · 531 bans
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 771 bans
Tiny
414 picks · 461 bans
Lion
402 picks · 232 bans
Magnus
398 picks · 871 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% alpha mantis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Mansaf
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Mansaf 59%alpha mantis 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Mansaf — the game was taken by Team Mansaf.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Mansaf · 59%
Series resultTeam Mansaf 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1