FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTMTeam Mansafloss 0:2
series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Mansaf
Crystal Maiden
Nagato · 3 games
Elder Titan
Nagato · 2 games
Marcioften banned
islA · 2 games
Muerta
islA · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
islA · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
islA · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
islA · 1 game
Pugnaoften banned
Nagato · 1 game
Team Secret
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 11 games
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 9 games
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 9 games
Elder Titan
Puppey · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
532 picks · 730 bans
Clockwerk
494 picks · 576 bans
Batrider
489 picks · 612 bans
Muerta
484 picks · 411 bans
Tiny
478 picks · 578 bans
Gyrocopter
447 picks · 802 bans
Magnus
445 picks · 980 bans
Lion
401 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:38
Team Mansaf 24%Team Secret 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark WillowNagato
Phantom AssassinParker
43% · 50 games
BristlebackMikSa`
55% · 88 games
TinySupream^
52% · 19 games
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
61% · 14 games
WarlockPuppey
Game 2prediction correct13:31
Team Mansaf 24%Team Secret 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 29:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ogre MagiNagato
BristlebackParker
71% · 3 games
AbaddonMikSa`
47% · 39 games
TinySupream^
59% · 18 games
ChenPuppey
46% · 31 game
LionThiolicor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 90%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2