Immortal Cup · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Maybeloss 0:3series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Team Zhouwin 3:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Maybe
No games played over 6 months.
Team Zhou
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
561 picks · 624 bans
Ringmaster
481 picks · 243 bans
Jakiro
458 picks · 430 bans
Terrorblade
392 picks · 829 bans
Storm Spirit
365 picks · 553 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 323 bans
Ancient Apparition
359 picks · 822 bans
Shadow Shaman
357 picks · 414 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Team Maybe
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Team Maybe
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:35
Team Maybe 67%Team Zhou 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Maybe — the game was taken by Team Zhou in 46:03.
Game 2prediction missed38:25
Team Maybe 67%Team Zhou 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Maybe — the game was taken by Team Zhou in 40:49.
Game 3prediction missed14:27
Team Maybe 67%Team Zhou 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Maybe — the game was taken by Team Zhou in 35:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Maybe · 67%
Series resultTeam Zhou 0:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3