DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionTMTeam Mishawin 1:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
QTQuadrober Troyloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Misha
No games played over 6 months.
Quadrober Troy
Visageoften banned
Ghostik · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 693 bans
Phoenix
425 picks · 694 bans
Muerta
415 picks · 307 bans
Clockwerk
408 picks · 398 bans
Bristleback
372 picks · 849 bans
Magnus
370 picks · 980 bans
Phantom Assassin
368 picks · 616 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 494 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Team Misha
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Misha
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:7
Team Misha 52%Quadrober Troy 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Misha — the game was taken by Team Misha in 34:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Misha · 52%
Series resultTeam Misha 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1