BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs predictionTMTeam Mysteryloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Mystery
Tusk
Ponyo · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
Phoenix
Ponyo · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
mks- · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Ghost · 2 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mercury · 2 games
Neon Esports
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 24 games
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 21 game
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 20 games
Sand King
Yopaj · 19 games
Tusk
Jaunuel · 16 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
477 picks · 188 bans
Snapfire
376 picks · 210 bans
Mars
368 picks · 580 bans
Puck
348 picks · 860 bans
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 459 bans
Tiny
319 picks · 246 bans
Grimstroke
314 picks · 293 bans
Nyx Assassin
309 picks · 595 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 46%
Hero pool strength61% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:38
Team Mystery 36%Neon Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 34:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Magemks-
TerrorbladeSkem
Timbersawxiaoyu154
Earth SpiritYopaj
Sand KingMercury
SlardarEnryu
Nyx AssassinEren
Dark SeerTims
47% · 72 games
AbaddonJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct9:39
Team Mystery 31%Neon Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 25:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritMercury
BristlebackSkem
Juggernautmks-
TinyYopaj
Axexiaoyu154
Dark SeerEnryu
LionEren
Keeper of the LightJaunuel
52% · 193 games
Nyx AssassinTims
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 77%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2