PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Conventus Stellarumloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 23 games
Tinysignature
rubikon155 · 21 game
Pangolier
Jabz · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 18 games
Clockwerk
Jhocam · 15 games
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 13 games
Windranger
rubikon155 · 13 games
Enchantress
YamSun · 12 games
Conventus Stellarum
Windranger
Ghost · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DM · 4 games
Techies
OmaR · 4 games
Mirana
OmaR · 3 games
Baneoften banned
Panto · 2 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
OmaR · 2 games
Clockwerk
Panto · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
DM · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
489 picks · 291 bans
Dark Willow
364 picks · 159 bans
Mirana
357 picks · 157 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 476 bans
Centaur Warrunner
301 picks · 301 bans
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 468 bans
Winter Wyvern
287 picks · 267 bans
Undying
267 picks · 369 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Conventus Stellarum
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:36
Team Nemesis 42%Conventus Stellarum 58%
The model gave 58% on Conventus Stellarum — the game was taken by Conventus Stellarum in 49:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeJaCkky
WindrangerGhost
LinaMo13ei
Outworld DestroyerLorenof
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Centaur WarrunnerDM
Dark WillowJhocam
MiranaPanto
BaneNARMAN
TechiesOmaR
Game 2prediction missed27:15
Team Nemesis 42%Conventus Stellarum 58%
The model gave 58% on Conventus Stellarum — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 35:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyJaCkky
PangolierLorenof
LinaMo13ei
WindrangerGhost
AxeSabeRLight-
Centaur WarrunnerDM
Witch DoctorNARMAN
MiranaPanto
ClockwerkJhocam
TechiesOmaR
Game 3prediction missed34:8
Team Nemesis 42%Conventus Stellarum 58%
The model gave 58% on Conventus Stellarum — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 42:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenJaCkky
LifestealerGhost
NecrophosMo13ei
SniperLorenof
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Dark SeerDM
TechiesNARMAN
Spirit BreakerOmaR
ClockwerkJhocam
Winter WyvernPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteConventus Stellarum · 63%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3