BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DDirebornloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 13 games
Leshrac
Mac · 11 games
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
Pugna
NARMAN · 9 games
Sand King
Mac · 9 games
Clockwerk
Ponyo · 7 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Akashi · 7 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 7 games
Direborn
Ancient Apparition
Juju · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
woMy · 3 games
Clockwerk
db- · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Cije · 2 games
Pugna
db- · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
woMy · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Juju · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Cije · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
589 picks · 622 bans
Tusk
510 picks · 330 bans
Dragon Knight
501 picks · 687 bans
Snapfire
492 picks · 188 bans
Hoodwink
444 picks · 224 bans
Centaur Warrunner
442 picks · 529 bans
Mars
395 picks · 541 bans
Pangolier
383 picks · 540 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Direborn
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:6
Team Nemesis 74%Direborn 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 23:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz23savage
GyrocopterCije
Centaur WarrunnerRaven
TidehunterwoMy
Ember SpiritMac
Shadow Shamandb-
Keeper of the LightJhocam
DisruptorJuju
Treant ProtectorJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct27:5
Team Nemesis 71%Direborn 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 18:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HuskarMac
MarswoMy
Spectre23savage
AbaddonCije
AxeRaven
Pugnadb-
Shadow ShamanJaunuel
Ancient ApparitionJuju
TuskJhocam
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 87%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2