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BLAST Slam IX. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:1
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Direborn Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 19 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Jabz · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
rubikon155 · 17 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 15 games
60%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 13 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Lelis · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
YamSun · 12 games
50%
Lich
Lichsignature
YamSun · 10 games
70%

Direborn Esports

Axe
Axeoften banned
woMy · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
woMy · 2 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
Dreamocel · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dalul · 2 games
50%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Dreamocel · 2 games
100%
Mirana
Mirana
db- · 2 games
100%
Windranger
Windranger
db- · 2 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
dalul · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
457 picks · 284 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
313 picks · 457 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
299 picks · 116 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
291 picks · 125 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
289 picks · 280 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
274 picks · 401 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 400 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
272 picks · 570 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Direborn Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:40
Team Nemesis 72%Direborn Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Direborn Esports in 45:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJaCkky
40% · 85 games52% · 180 games
KezDreamocel
Kez
Snapfire
SnapfireJabz
45% · 177 games53% · 202 games
DoomwoMy
Doom
Void Spirit
Void SpiritKen
46% · 150 games48% · 228 games
Dark Willowdalul
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJhocam
52% · 210 games63% · 119 games
Treant Protectordb-
Treant Protector
Mirana
MiranaNARMAN
48% · 107 games
Game 2prediction correct41:29
Team Nemesis 74%Direborn Esports 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 52:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJaCkky
48% · 184 games51% · 372 games
Shadow FiendDreamocel
Shadow Fiend
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKen
54% · 381 game50% · 235 games
DoomwoMy
Doom
Largo
LargoJabz
57% · 262 games46% · 163 games
Techiesdalul
Techies
Undying
UndyingNARMAN
50% · 201 game48% · 616 games
Hoodwinkdb-
Hoodwink
Windranger
WindrangerJhocam
47% · 358 games
Game 3prediction correct32:14
Team Nemesis 75%Direborn Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaJaCkky
54% · 124 games47% · 119 games
LifestealerDreamocel
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKen
53% · 367 games48% · 345 games
UnderlordwoMy
Underlord
Largo
LargoJabz
53% · 213 games46% · 597 games
Hoodwinkdalul
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernNARMAN
58% · 127 games41% · 184 games
Enchantressdb-
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskJhocam
54% · 414 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 88%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3