BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
rubikon155 · 18 games
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 16 games
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 12 games
Enchantress
YamSun · 12 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Lelis · 11 games
Phoenix
Jaunuel · 11 games
Execration
Banesignature
cml · 8 games
Terrorbladesignature
Tino- · 7 games
Doomsignature
Tino- · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 6 games
Hoodwink
Shanks · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 6 games
Rubick
Shanks · 6 games
Techies
Shanks · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
496 picks · 336 bans
Bane
346 picks · 470 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 516 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 489 bans
Shadow Fiend
312 picks · 646 bans
Tiny
282 picks · 305 bans
Windranger
267 picks · 190 bans
Undying
266 picks · 341 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total52% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:15
Team Nemesis 53%Execration 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 53:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenJaCkky
BristlebackPalos
Ember SpiritKen
LinaBob
EnigmaJabz
Dark SeerTino-
HoodwinkNARMAN
Earth SpiritShanks
TuskJhocam
Miranacml
Game 2prediction correct35:36
Team Nemesis 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 1:03:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerJaCkky
Shadow FiendPalos
Ember SpiritKen
Earth SpiritBob
TidehunterJabz
UnderlordTino-
TechiesNARMAN
RubickShanks
HoodwinkJhocam
Miranacml
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 52%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2