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The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gior Dota Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 19 games
47%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 18 games
61%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 18 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Q · 18 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 15 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 15 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mac · 15 games
60%

Gior Dota Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Asao · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Asao · 1 game
100%
Lion
Lion
Asao · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kendallx · 1 game
0%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Asao · 1 game
0%
Silencer
Silencer
Cara · 1 game
0%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Cara · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
621 picks · 404 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
525 picks · 290 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
484 picks · 580 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 388 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
426 picks · 601 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
345 picks · 977 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
342 picks · 287 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 507 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:12
Team Nemesis 74%Gior Dota Team 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 34:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyrubikon155
30% · 59 games61% · 262 games
BaneFeelinG
Bane
Brewmaster
BrewmasterJabz
50% · 14 games
Pangolier
Pangolier4nalog
46% · 94 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
30% · 78 games
Lich
LichYamSun
38% · 17 games
Game 2prediction correct29:2
Team Nemesis 77%Gior Dota Team 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 24:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerrubikon155
55% · 18 games49% · 200 games
AxeFeelinG
Axe
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit4nalog
41% · 79 games
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerJabz
45% · 49 games
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLelis
59% · 25 games
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorYamSun
55% · 29 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 91%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2