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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Jackky and friendswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 16 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 15 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mac · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 12 games
42%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
45%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
23savage · 10 games
20%
Pugna
Pugna
NARMAN · 9 games
56%
Sand King
Sand King
Mac · 9 games
44%

Jackky and friends

Mars
Marsoften banned
Jabz · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
100%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 1 game
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
0%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Emo · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Oli · 1 game
100%
Pugna
Pugna
Oli · 1 game
0%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
545 picks · 745 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 351 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
465 picks · 638 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 543 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
372 picks · 643 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 552 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 465 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
347 picks · 157 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Jackky and friends
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:25
Team Nemesis 53%Jackky and friends 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Jackky and friends in 46:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddon23savage
44% · 341 game47% · 248 games
GyrocopterJaCkky
Gyrocopter
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMac
48% · 96 games49% · 217 games
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
Centaur Warrunner
Slardar
SlardarRaven
53% · 285 games49% · 218 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenJaunuel
53% · 109 games49% · 354 games
TinyQ
Tiny
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJhocam
55% · 336 games53% · 130 games
PhoenixOli
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct28:13
Team Nemesis 52%Jackky and friends 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 32:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
48% · 229 games47% · 56 games
Drow RangerJaCkky
Drow Ranger
Doom
DoomRaven
55% · 197 games49% · 346 games
PuckEmo
Puck
Tiny
TinyMac
53% · 351 game45% · 235 games
MarsJabz
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJaunuel
54% · 304 games51% · 248 games
PhoenixOli
Phoenix
Muerta
MuertaJhocam
52% · 268 games47% · 464 games
TuskQ
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed3:21
Team Nemesis 51%Jackky and friends 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Jackky and friends in 28:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin23savage
50% · 223 games52% · 394 games
GyrocopterJaCkky
Gyrocopter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerRaven
53% · 308 games53% · 117 games
HuskarEmo
Huskar
Tiny
TinyMac
49% · 336 games45% · 268 games
AxeJabz
Axe
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerJhocam
50% · 56 games50% · 90 games
RubickQ
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroJaunuel
48% · 440 games49% · 494 games
TuskOli
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 55%
Series resultJackky and friends 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3