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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kopiteloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Raven · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 5 games
80%
Tiny
Tiny
Akashi · 5 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Raven · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Raven · 4 games
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Raven · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
Jing · 4 games
50%

Kopite

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Bombi · 2 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Bombi · 2 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
GaN- · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
GaN- · 2 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
GaN- · 2 games
0%
Oracle
Oracle
Bombi · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
GaN- · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bombi · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 787 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
317 picks · 293 bans
48%
Pugna
Pugna
273 picks · 301 bans
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 171 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
269 picks · 743 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
266 picks · 128 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
265 picks · 248 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
261 picks · 769 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:23
Team Nemesis 63%Kopite 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 35:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAkashi
50% · 12 games49% · 109 games
LeshracGaN-
Leshrac
Doom
DoomRaven
52% · 17 games
Sand King
Sand KingMac
55% · 18 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJing
41% · 13 games
Tusk
TuskPonyo
57% · 49 games
Game 2prediction missed20:19
Team Nemesis 63%Kopite 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Kopite in 32:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageAkashi
38% · 12 games54% · 152 games
Sand KingGaN-
Sand King
Night Stalker
Night StalkerRaven
59% · 13 games
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMac
50% · 64 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJing
51% · 39 games
Disruptor
DisruptorPonyo
32% · 24 games
Game 3prediction correct36:10
Team Nemesis 64%Kopite 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 29:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAkashi
49% · 127 games51% · 474 games
BeastmasterGaN-
Beastmaster
Leshrac
LeshracMac
51% · 35 games
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerRaven
49% · 101 game
Tiny
TinyJing
53% · 157 games
Enchantress
EnchantressPonyo
45% · 54 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 77%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3