FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
REKONIXwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Leshrac
Mac · 9 games
Tiny
Jing · 9 games
Batridersignature
Jing · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Raven · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Raven · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Raven · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 5 games
REKONIX
Marssignature
Fbz · 8 games
Disruptor
Varizh · 6 games
Silenceroften banned
Varizh · 5 games
Snapfire
dalul · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
inYourdreaM · 4 games
Hoodwink
dalul · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
inYourdreaM · 4 games
Tusk
dalul · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
387 picks · 351 bans
Snapfire
345 picks · 174 bans
Puck
341 picks · 862 bans
Pugna
296 picks · 343 bans
Warlock
283 picks · 127 bans
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 792 bans
Tusk
280 picks · 248 bans
Batrider
272 picks · 685 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:48
Team Nemesis 48%REKONIX 52%
The model gave 52% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 1:10:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
EarthshakerMac
GyrocopterTraVins
Templar AssassinAkashi
AbaddonFbz
BristlebackRaven
PuckinYourdreaM
BatriderJing
Marcidalul
WarlockPonyo
DisruptorVarizh
Game 2prediction correct29:32
Team Nemesis 46%REKONIX 54%
The model gave 54% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 44:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonAkashi
SvenTraVins
Sand KingMac
EarthshakerinYourdreaM
EnigmaRaven
BatriderFbz
Naga SirenPonyo
SnapfireVarizh
ClockwerkJing
Tuskdalul
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 57%
Series resultREKONIX 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2