DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 1:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TATeam Aureuswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Batridersignature
Jing · 6 games
Doomoften banned
Raven · 5 games
Tiny
Akashi · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Raven · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Raven · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 4 games
Snapfire
Jing · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 3 games
Team Aureus
Monkey Kingoften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Force · 1 game
Bristleback
Force · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Skem · 1 game
Disruptor
Tims · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Force · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
Yopaj · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Skem · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
299 picks · 748 bans
Disruptor
290 picks · 261 bans
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
Pugna
261 picks · 280 bans
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 697 bans
Tusk
253 picks · 243 bans
Marci
252 picks · 703 bans
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 579 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Aureus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:28
Team Nemesis 45%Team Aureus 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 41:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetAkashi
GyrocopterNatsumi
PuckMac
Monkey KingYopaj
Centaur WarrunnerRaven
Primal BeastForce
LionJing
Ogre MagiSkem
ClockwerkPonyo
SnapfireTims
Game 2prediction missed28:20
Team Nemesis 43%Team Aureus 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 40:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageAkashi
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
BeastmasterRaven
MarciForce
Sand KingMac
Storm SpiritYopaj
EnchantressPonyo
JakiroSkem
Dark WillowJing
TuskTims
Game 3prediction correct18:34
Team Nemesis 43%Team Aureus 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 1:03:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinAkashi
Queen of PainYopaj
PangolierMac
AbaddonNatsumi
EnigmaRaven
SnapfireTims
EnchantressPonyo
DoomForce
BatriderJing
MiranaSkem
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aureus · 65%
Series resultTeam Aureus 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3