BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TATeam Aureuswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Batridersignature
Jing · 8 games
Leshrac
Mac · 8 games
Tinysignature
Akashi · 8 games
Doomsignature
Raven · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Raven · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Raven · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 5 games
Team Aureus
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 10 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 9 games
Disruptor
Tims · 6 games
Bristleback
Force · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
350 picks · 322 bans
Puck
331 picks · 829 bans
Snapfire
303 picks · 152 bans
Pugna
288 picks · 323 bans
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 776 bans
Tusk
275 picks · 247 bans
Warlock
271 picks · 124 bans
Shadow Shaman
267 picks · 171 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aureus
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Team Aureus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:33
Team Nemesis 48%Team Aureus 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 39:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckMac
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
Troll WarlordAkashi
DawnbreakerForce
BeastmasterRaven
PangolierYopaj
SilencerPonyo
WarlockSkem
TuskJing
HoodwinkTims
Game 2prediction correct15:31
Team Nemesis 50%Team Aureus 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 30:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaAkashi
GyrocopterNatsumi
LeshracMac
BristlebackForce
DoomRaven
InvokerYopaj
Naga SirenPonyo
DisruptorSkem
TinyJing
HoodwinkTims
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aureus · 57%
Series resultTeam Aureus 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2