European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Tinysignature
Mac · 20 games
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 18 games
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 17 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 16 games
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 15 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 14 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
Team Lynx
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 27 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 24 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 23 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 20 games
Tidehunteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 19 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
501 picks · 274 bans
Phoenix
484 picks · 561 bans
Jakiro
452 picks · 352 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 350 bans
Tusk
382 picks · 328 bans
Beastmaster
351 picks · 834 bans
Puck
343 picks · 844 bans
Rubick
325 picks · 173 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Nemesis 37%Team Lynx 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Game 2prediction correct20:43
Team Nemesis 45%Team Lynx 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 49:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit4nalog
Weaver7jesu
LargoJabz
DoomVladikTheHtiviy
Huskarrubikon155
Slardarmellojul
HoodwinkLelis
Phoenixkreker
LichYamSun
RubickQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 63%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2