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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team NextUploss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KZ TEAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team NextUp

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 4 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernaut
7jesu · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
forcemajor · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Petushara · 3 games
67%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
7jesu · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 3 games
67%

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 18 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
59%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 16 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 16 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 15 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 14 games
50%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 475 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
279 picks · 422 bans
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
261 picks · 447 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
260 picks · 231 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
252 picks · 157 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
243 picks · 696 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
243 picks · 335 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
239 picks · 377 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:24
Team NextUp 37%KZ TEAM 63%
The model gave 63% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 22:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMirage
53% · 165 games54% · 130 games
SlarkOtaker
Slark
Windranger
Windranger7jesu
50% · 106 games54% · 185 games
Primal BeastSupream^
Primal Beast
Tidehunter
TidehuntermeLes
43% · 151 game51% · 150 games
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkforcemajor
43% · 105 games49% · 159 games
Shadow DemonAstral
Shadow Demon
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorjesv
56% · 219 games46% · 122 games
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct17:29
Team NextUp 35%KZ TEAM 65%
The model gave 65% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMirage
47% · 129 games45% · 138 games
UrsaOtaker
Ursa
Faceless Void
Faceless Void7jesu
56% · 180 games53% · 280 games
TimbersawSkyLark
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsmeLes
52% · 144 games50% · 423 games
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Rubick
Rubickforcemajor
47% · 635 games52% · 328 games
Nature's ProphetSsaSpartan
Nature's Prophet
Enchantress
Enchantressjesv
57% · 272 games40% · 191 game
LionAstral
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 72%
Series resultKZ TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2