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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team NextUploss 1:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team NextUp

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batridersignature
VaniLLl · 7 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Petushara · 5 games
40%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Mirage · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 4 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
7jesu · 4 games
25%

Nemiga Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 8 games
50%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
zenica · 6 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
forcemajor · 6 games
33%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
zenica · 6 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
v1olent- · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 352 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
341 picks · 336 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
334 picks · 528 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
322 picks · 488 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
315 picks · 245 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
300 picks · 576 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
299 picks · 177 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
286 picks · 260 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:52
Team NextUp 41%Nemiga Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 46:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling7jesu
41% · 212 games55% · 139 games
Monkey Kingv1olent-
Monkey King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMirage
53% · 189 games56% · 163 games
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
Magnus
MagnusMiyaoo
46% · 197 games54% · 227 games
Pugnaqueezy
Pugna
Undying
UndyingVaniLLl
48% · 229 games45% · 126 games
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
Centaur Warrunner
54% · 172 games
Miranaaik
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed30:24
Team NextUp 43%Nemiga Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 50:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealer7jesu
53% · 111 games38% · 33 games
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
Phantom Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaMiyaoo
48% · 156 games43% · 163 games
Centaur Warrunnernicky`cool
Centaur Warrunner
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
57% · 277 games44% · 61 game
RazorMikSa`
Razor
Undying
UndyingVaniLLl
55% · 253 games52% · 306 games
Rubickqueezy
Rubick
51% · 234 games
Enchantressaik
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct10:29
Team NextUp 43%Nemiga Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 23:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith King7jesu
51% · 69 games35% · 100 games
Lunav1olent-
Luna
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMiyaoo
45% · 244 games55% · 165 games
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
Tiny
TinyMirage
57% · 222 games46% · 139 games
MarsMikSa`
Mars
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterVaniLLl
54% · 89 games52% · 123 games
Batrideraik
Batrider
53% · 97 games
Pugnaqueezy
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 66%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3