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RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team NextUploss 0:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team NextUp

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
27%
Batrider
Batridersignature
VaniLLl · 8 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 6 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 6 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
7jesu · 5 games
40%

Nemiga Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 13 games
46%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 13 games
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MikSa` · 11 games
36%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 9 games
44%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
452 picks · 724 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 678 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
417 picks · 335 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
407 picks · 355 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
404 picks · 524 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
401 picks · 886 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 180 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
379 picks · 172 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total78% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:31
Team NextUp 33%Nemiga Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 54:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMirage
45% · 211 games50% · 139 games
Faceless VoidLukas
Faceless Void
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter7jesu
46% · 148 games58% · 185 games
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
Doom
DoomMiyaoo
51% · 277 games51% · 92 games
EnigmaMikSa`
Enigma
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenso bad
49% · 244 games54% · 203 games
Batriderqueezy
Batrider
48% · 261 game
Techiesaik
Techies
Game 2prediction correct26:36
Team NextUp 35%Nemiga Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 43:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMirage
49% · 74 games52% · 41 game
WeaverLukas
Weaver
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker7jesu
51% · 117 games45% · 154 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Omniknight
OmniknightMiyaoo
58% · 28 games53% · 35 games
VisageMikSa`
Visage
Batrider
Batriderso bad
48% · 200 games51% · 53 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
49% · 136 games
Disruptoraik
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 78%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2