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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team NextUploss 1:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Tickleswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team NextUp

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 4 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernaut
7jesu · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
forcemajor · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 3 games
67%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
7jesu · 3 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Petushara · 2 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Petushara · 2 games
0%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
jesv · 2 games
0%

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 23 games
74%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 20 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 19 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 15 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 13 games
62%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 12 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 12 games
42%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Lorenof · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
288 picks · 415 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
272 picks · 405 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 439 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
229 picks · 207 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 597 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
215 picks · 185 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
212 picks · 301 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
209 picks · 92 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:20
Team NextUp 35%Team Tickles 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 44:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
49% · 309 games53% · 122 games
AlchemistUlnit
Alchemist
Faceless Void
Faceless Void7jesu
51% · 194 games55% · 306 games
PangolierLorenof
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerPetushara
47% · 159 games47% · 130 games
MarsForce
Mars
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkforcemajor
45% · 122 games51% · 232 games
EnchantressNARMAN
Enchantress
Phoenix
Phoenixjesv
43% · 202 games58% · 196 games
ClockwerkDukalis
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct4:20
Team NextUp 38%Team Tickles 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 19:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterPetushara
56% · 197 games45% · 246 games
Keeper of the LightLorenof
Keeper of the Light
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
52% · 251 game48% · 86 games
LunaUlnit
Luna
Morphling
Morphling7jesu
44% · 184 games51% · 117 games
VisageForce
Visage
Techies
Techiesforcemajor
51% · 242 games49% · 417 games
BatriderNARMAN
Batrider
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritjesv
55% · 93 games50% · 101 game
IoDukalis
Io
Game 3prediction correct10:20
Team NextUp 36%Team Tickles 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 25:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemist7jesu
58% · 93 games45% · 95 games
SvenUlnit
Sven
Tidehunter
TidehunterPetushara
48% · 110 games50% · 70 games
WindrangerLorenof
Windranger
Razor
RazorMirage
53% · 49 games46% · 85 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetforcemajor
49% · 150 games56% · 50 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkjesv
41% · 71 game52% · 173 games
ClockwerkNARMAN
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 74%
Series resultTeam Tickles 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3