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CCT Season 2 Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Publicloss 1:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Public

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Adzantick · 9 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 9 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 7 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Adzantick · 6 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Jeezy · 6 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 6 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
mangekyou · 6 games
50%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Shad · 6 games
67%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 33 games
64%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 28 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 27 games
78%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 26 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 22 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 21 game
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
swedenstrong · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
780 picks · 362 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
581 picks · 300 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
575 picks · 574 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
504 picks · 352 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
495 picks · 598 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
482 picks · 273 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
478 picks · 749 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
431 picks · 1107 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:15
Team Public 29%1w Team 71%
The model gave 71% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Team Public in 39:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
57% · 161 game43% · 99 games
Troll WarlordMunkushi~
Troll Warlord
Lycan
Lycanmangekyou
55% · 68 games47% · 127 games
Primal BeastSquad1x
Primal Beast
Puck
Puckxn丶e
48% · 204 games50% · 33 games
VenomancerSSS
Venomancer
Bane
BanePuppey
53% · 93 games48% · 281 game
JakiroRein
Jakiro
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magemrls
53% · 55 games49% · 41 game
Spirit Breakerswedenstrong
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct14:22
Team Public 28%1w Team 72%
The model gave 72% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckxn丶e
50% · 420 games47% · 348 games
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Dragon Knight
Weaver
WeaverShigetsu
43% · 116 games52% · 143 games
Primal BeastSquad1x
Primal Beast
Broodmother
Broodmothermangekyou
55% · 51 game52% · 166 games
TidehunterSSS
Tidehunter
Chen
ChenPuppey
59% · 248 games49% · 313 games
WarlockRein
Warlock
Jakiro
Jakiromrls
48% · 511 games46% · 376 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct3:21
Team Public 27%1w Team 73%
The model gave 73% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 26:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordShigetsu
49% · 109 games48% · 315 games
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxn丶e
52% · 351 game57% · 243 games
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Centaur Warrunner
Timbersaw
Timbersawmangekyou
53% · 247 games41% · 60 games
SniperSquad1x
Sniper
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
49% · 244 games52% · 380 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPuppey
48% · 274 games49% · 227 games
PugnaRein
Pugna
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 87%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3