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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Publicloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Most Wantedwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Public

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
40%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
mangekyou · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Puppey · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 4 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Shad · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 3 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Jeezy · 3 games
33%

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 6 games
83%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Ponlo · 5 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 5 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 4 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
423 · 3 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
fortniteMan · 3 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
702 picks · 343 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
586 picks · 618 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
480 picks · 254 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
404 picks · 1148 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
399 picks · 674 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
394 picks · 252 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
381 picks · 383 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
344 picks · 392 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 73%
Hero pool strength62% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:33
Team Public 32%Most Wanted 68%
The model gave 68% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 41:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverShad
44% · 72 games57% · 73 games
Faceless Void423
Faceless Void
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnermangekyou
52% · 226 games52% · 382 games
Storm Spiritniche
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAdzantick
45% · 334 games53% · 330 games
BristlebackfortniteMan
Bristleback
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJeezy
43% · 387 games55% · 400 games
SnapfireRein
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskPuppey
50% · 407 games49% · 241 game
Shadow DemonPonlo
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct7:16
Team Public 30%Most Wanted 70%
The model gave 70% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 21:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezShad
little data52% · 29 games
Broodmother423
Broodmother
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAdzantick
45% · 149 games58% · 173 games
BristlebackfortniteMan
Bristleback
Tidehunter
Tidehuntermangekyou
46% · 91 game54% · 121 game
Void Spiritniche
Void Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireJeezy
41% · 187 games55% · 97 games
DazzleRein
Dazzle
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
50% · 132 games53% · 139 games
Shadow DemonPonlo
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 80%
Series resultMost Wanted 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2