Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs predictionTPteam pudgeloss 0:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:1
CIS Rejectswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
team pudge
No games played over 6 months.
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
267 picks · 395 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 396 bans
Monkey King
259 picks · 633 bans
Bane
241 picks · 175 bans
Lina
218 picks · 479 bans
Lion
214 picks · 108 bans
Weaver
214 picks · 408 bans
Void Spirit
209 picks · 265 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% team pudge
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:41
team pudge 48%CIS Rejects 52%
The model gave 52% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 22:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 52%
Series resultCIS Rejects 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1