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The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Refuserwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Game Masterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Refuser

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 3 games
33%
Razor
Razor
zeal · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
Monet · 3 games
33%
Warlock
Warlock
Dy · 3 games
0%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Yang · 2 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
zeal · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
poyoyo · 2 games
50%

Game Master

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Monet · 4 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
JT- · 4 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
7e · 3 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Kaka · 3 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaka · 3 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Poloson · 2 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 2 games
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
7e · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
615 picks · 395 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
516 picks · 286 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
480 picks · 580 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
466 picks · 387 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
423 picks · 594 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
343 picks · 968 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
338 picks · 285 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 501 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% Game Master
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Game Master
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:26
Team Refuser 47%Game Master 53%
The model gave 53% on Game Master — the game was taken by Team Refuser in 1:00:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaBoBoKa
50% · 218 games47% · 44 games
Drow Rangerflyfly
Drow Ranger
Invoker
InvokerPaparazi
47% · 151 game50% · 193 games
Storm SpiritMoon
Storm Spirit
Alchemist
AlchemistMonet
52% · 99 games50% · 151 game
UnderlordJT-
Underlord
Undying
UndyingYang
50% · 132 games51% · 105 games
LargoTK
Largo
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPoloson
57% · 182 games44% · 289 games
TuskPyw
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct17:45
Team Refuser 44%Game Master 56%
The model gave 56% on Game Master — the game was taken by Game Master in 48:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMonet
48% · 479 games52% · 222 games
DoomJT-
Doom
Death Prophet
Death ProphetPaparazi
50% · 58 games52% · 280 games
Windrangerflyfly
Windranger
Underlord
UnderlordYang
46% · 223 games53% · 421 game
PuckMoon
Puck
Rubick
RubickBoBoKa
51% · 274 games48% · 220 games
SnapfirePyw
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixPoloson
43% · 318 games57% · 209 games
LargoTK
Largo
Game 3prediction missed28:12
Team Refuser 46%Game Master 54%
The model gave 54% on Game Master — the game was taken by Team Refuser in 30:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMonet
54% · 254 games46% · 355 games
Storm SpiritMoon
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierPaparazi
47% · 361 game45% · 145 games
Kezflyfly
Kez
Axe
AxeYang
54% · 215 games49% · 89 games
MagnusJT-
Magnus
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
59% · 141 game49% · 444 games
HoodwinkTK
Hoodwink
Silencer
SilencerPoloson
54% · 117 games41% · 55 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteGame Master · 55%
Series resultTeam Refuser 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3