ESL Challenger China Season 3 x ACL 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Refuserloss 0:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Resiliencewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Refuser
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 4 games
Razoroften banned
zeal · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
zeal · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
poyoyo · 2 games
Kezoften banned
poyoyo · 2 games
Muertaoften banned
Pyw · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Pyw · 2 games
Shadow Shaman
Dy · 2 games
Team Resilience
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 4 games
Clinkzoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Jakiro
zzq · 3 games
Muertaoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Rubick
pLAnet · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
niu · 2 games
Techies
pLAnet · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
517 picks · 427 bans
Hoodwink
475 picks · 243 bans
Phoenix
473 picks · 528 bans
Tiny
461 picks · 354 bans
Tusk
417 picks · 356 bans
Beastmaster
358 picks · 800 bans
Puck
353 picks · 856 bans
Warlock
349 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Team Resilience
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Resilience
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:25
Team Refuser 46%Team Resilience 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Resilience — the game was taken by Team Resilience in 34:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerMonet
Kezpoyoyo
Ember SpiritPaparazi
PangolierEcho
UnderlordYang
Batriderniu
PhoenixDy
Earth SpiritpLAnet
RubickPyw
Winter Wyvernzzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Resilience · 59%
Series resultTeam Resilience 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1