DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Resiliencewin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cloud Risingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Resilience
No games played over 6 months.
Cloud Rising
Clinkzoften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 2 games
Clockwerk
Undyne_ · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Undyne_ · 1 game
Dazzleoften banned
Undyne_ · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Q7 · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
631 picks · 695 bans
Tiny
511 picks · 449 bans
Tusk
482 picks · 387 bans
Warlock
431 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
405 picks · 345 bans
Shadow Demon
387 picks · 1068 bans
Puck
380 picks · 799 bans
Mars
376 picks · 560 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Cloud Rising
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Resilience
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:19
Team Resilience 62%Cloud Rising 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Resilience — the game was taken by Team Resilience in 38:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkzpoyoyo
Alchemistlou
Sand KingEcho
Ember SpiritQ7
Slardarniu
RubickpLAnet
Treant Protectorzzq
Game 2prediction correct21:7
Team Resilience 62%Cloud Rising 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Resilience — the game was taken by Team Resilience in 33:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkzpoyoyo
Ursalou
Sand KingEcho
Ember SpiritQ7
Tidehunterniu
TechiespLAnet
Jakirozzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Resilience · 73%
Series resultTeam Resilience 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2