DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Resiliencewin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Imperial powerloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Resilience
Winter Wyvernsignature
zzq · 16 games
Pangolier
Echo · 15 games
Kezsignature
poyoyo · 11 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Echo · 9 games
Puckoften banned
Echo · 9 games
Timbersawsignature
niu · 9 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
poyoyo · 8 games
Invokeroften banned
Echo · 8 games
Imperial power
Enigmaoften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Mirana
PlayHard · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
510 picks · 325 bans
Dark Willow
435 picks · 231 bans
Mirana
397 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
346 picks · 315 bans
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 499 bans
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 285 bans
Earth Spirit
284 picks · 503 bans
Windranger
283 picks · 130 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Team Resilience
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Team Resilience
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Resilience 92%Imperial power 8%
The model gave 92% on Team Resilience — the game was taken by Team Resilience.
Game 2prediction correct18:3
Team Resilience 78%Imperial power 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Resilience — the game was taken by Team Resilience in 18:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetpoyoyo
BrewmasterIce Coke
Dark Seerniu
Hoodwinksheep
PangolierEcho
Bounty HunterTK
Miranazzq
Game 5prediction correct41:21
Team Resilience 76%Imperial power 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Resilience — the game was taken by Team Resilience in 28:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolierniu
MagnusIce Coke
Kezpoyoyo
Hoodwinksheep
Outworld DestroyerEcho
GyrocopterTK
Techieszzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Resilience · 92%
Series resultTeam Resilience 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3