DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Resilience
Clinkzoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Muerta
poyoyo · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 2 games
Jakirooften banned
zzq · 2 games
Techies
pLAnet · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
niu · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
zzq · 2 games
Roar Gaming
Jakirooften banned
RedPanda · 14 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 13 games
Tusk
CatYou · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 9 games
Disruptor
RedPanda · 8 games
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
Marci
Ulu · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
647 picks · 688 bans
Tiny
524 picks · 453 bans
Tusk
498 picks · 421 bans
Warlock
434 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
432 picks · 427 bans
Shadow Demon
405 picks · 1110 bans
Puck
396 picks · 865 bans
Hoodwink
391 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength65% Team Resilience
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Resilience
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:22
Team Resilience 57%Roar Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Resilience — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 29:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritEcho
BristlebackButterflyEffect
Monkey Kingpoyoyo
Alchemistukiyo
Slardarniu
Batrider生死
Phoenixzzq
HoodwinkCatYou
RubickpLAnet
EnchantressLOyd
Game 2prediction missed34:31
Team Resilience 59%Roar Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Resilience — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 51:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Rangerpoyoyo
Alchemistukiyo
Sand KingEcho
Bristleback生死
Underlordniu
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
RubickpLAnet
EnchantressLOyd
Jakirozzq
TuskCatYou
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Resilience · 63%
Series resultRoar Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2