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BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Resilienceloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Resilience

Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
zzq · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Echo · 14 games
50%
Kez
Kezsignature
poyoyo · 11 games
73%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Echo · 10 games
70%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Echo · 9 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 9 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
niu · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 8 games
63%

Yakult Brothers

Lion
Lionsignature
Kaka · 15 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
lou · 15 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Kaka · 14 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Moon · 14 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenix
天命 · 12 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Moon · 9 games
78%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
496 picks · 336 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
346 picks · 470 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 516 bans
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 489 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
312 picks · 646 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
282 picks · 305 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
267 picks · 190 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
266 picks · 341 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 68%
Hero pool strength51% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:35
Team Resilience 41%Yakult Brothers 59%
The model gave 59% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 43:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerpoyoyo
52% · 69 games60% · 63 games
Svenlou
Sven
Invoker
InvokerEcho
51% · 123 games46% · 194 games
BeastmasterBEYOND
Beastmaster
Underlord
Underlordniu
44% · 246 games49% · 214 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Undying
Undyingzzq
47% · 129 games55% · 147 games
Mirana天命
Mirana
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTK
49% · 176 games50% · 125 games
Keeper of the LightKaka
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction missed40:14
Team Resilience 43%Yakult Brothers 57%
The model gave 57% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Team Resilience in 33:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinypoyoyo
51% · 552 games47% · 137 games
LycanBEYOND
Lycan
Doom
Doomniu
55% · 279 games50% · 352 games
Windrangerlou
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierEcho
49% · 431 game48% · 438 games
PuckEmo
Puck
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightTK
47% · 238 games49% · 164 games
LionKaka
Lion
Bane
Banezzq
55% · 333 games48% · 742 games
Hoodwink天命
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct25:38
Team Resilience 43%Yakult Brothers 57%
The model gave 57% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectrepoyoyo
55% · 31 game42% · 32 games
Svenlou
Sven
Axe
Axeniu
48% · 120 games45% · 70 games
LinaEmo
Lina
Sand King
Sand KingEcho
51% · 92 games48% · 122 games
TimbersawBEYOND
Timbersaw
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightTK
52% · 102 games50% · 59 games
EarthshakerKaka
Earthshaker
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernzzq
55% · 86 games52% · 148 games
Bane天命
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 64%
Series resultYakult Brothers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3