Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTSTeam salchipapawin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PEPegasus Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team salchipapa
No games played over 6 months.
Pegasus Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
777 picks · 591 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 443 bans
Tiny
442 picks · 379 bans
Nature's Prophet
414 picks · 689 bans
Beastmaster
412 picks · 968 bans
Undying
402 picks · 591 bans
Ember Spirit
389 picks · 903 bans
Mirana
389 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team salchipapa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team salchipapa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:20
Team salchipapa 53%Pegasus Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Team salchipapa — the game was taken by Pegasus Esports in 24:12.
Game 2prediction correct36:12
Team salchipapa 53%Pegasus Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Team salchipapa — the game was taken by Team salchipapa in 30:39.
Game 3prediction correct32:34
Team salchipapa 53%Pegasus Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Team salchipapa — the game was taken by Team salchipapa in 45:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam salchipapa · 53%
Series resultTeam salchipapa 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3