Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTSTeam salchipapaloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Universitario Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team salchipapa
No games played over 6 months.
Universitario Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
776 picks · 591 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 445 bans
Tiny
442 picks · 379 bans
Nature's Prophet
413 picks · 689 bans
Beastmaster
412 picks · 971 bans
Undying
401 picks · 592 bans
Mirana
389 picks · 210 bans
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 906 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Team salchipapa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Universitario Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:12
Team salchipapa 50%Universitario Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by Universitario Esports in 34:18.
Game 2prediction missed27:21
Team salchipapa 50%Universitario Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by Team salchipapa in 34:00.
Game 3prediction correct15:23
Team salchipapa 50%Universitario Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by Universitario Esports in 37:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteUniversitario Esports · 50%
Series resultUniversitario Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3