Riyadh Masters 2023 MENA Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secret MEwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DEDota Enjoyerloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret ME
No games played over 6 months.
Dota Enjoyer
Bloodseekeroften banned
layme · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
layme · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
701 picks · 494 bans
Disruptor
565 picks · 504 bans
Doom
564 picks · 1095 bans
Techies
555 picks · 604 bans
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1218 bans
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1038 bans
Pangolier
461 picks · 917 bans
Enchantress
458 picks · 666 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret ME
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Secret ME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:36
Team Secret ME 65%Dota Enjoyer 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Secret ME — the game was taken by Dota Enjoyer in 38:01.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Secret ME 65%Dota Enjoyer 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Secret ME — the game was taken by Team Secret ME.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret ME · 65%
Series resultTeam Secret ME 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2