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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 18 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 15 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 13 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 12 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Ekki · 11 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BOOM · 10 games
40%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 23 games
52%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 15 games
80%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
29%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 13 games
62%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 213 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 621 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
406 picks · 738 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
392 picks · 158 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
391 picks · 542 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
380 picks · 319 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 731 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 547 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:26
Team Secret 48%BOOM Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 41:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
54% · 45 games50% · 88 games
Dragon KnightPakazs
Dragon Knight
Kunkka
KunkkaBOOM
47% · 120 games55% · 49 games
EnigmaSacred
Enigma
Oracle
OraclePuppey
68% · 28 games42% · 140 games
PhoenixPanda
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskThiolicor
43% · 84 games
Game 2prediction missed41:39
Team Secret 47%BOOM Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:16:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorCrystallis
41% · 60 games47% · 81 game
WeaverPakazs
Weaver
Mars
MarsBOOM
52% · 74 games55% · 94 games
EnigmaSacred
Enigma
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPuppey
46% · 59 games58% · 123 games
DisruptorPanda
Disruptor
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonThiolicor
49% · 105 games
Game 3prediction missed13:30
Team Secret 50%BOOM Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Secret — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallis
38% · 90 games50% · 67 games
JuggernautPakazs
Juggernaut
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBOOM
47% · 79 games59% · 123 games
KunkkaSacred
Kunkka
Batrider
BatriderThiolicor
49% · 244 games49% · 304 games
TechiesPanda
Techies
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPuppey
55% · 81 game
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 52%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3