Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bramewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 15 games
Iooften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 10 games
Tinysignature
YapzOr · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
YapzOr · 9 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
YapzOr · 9 games
Rubick
YapzOr · 9 games
Ogre Magisignature
Puppey · 8 games
Brame
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 18 games
Spirit Breakersignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Nefrit · 15 games
Invokeroften banned
W1sh- · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
Lunaoften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
478 picks · 279 bans
Mars
402 picks · 547 bans
Queen of Pain
360 picks · 504 bans
Weaver
357 picks · 468 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 512 bans
Kunkka
291 picks · 519 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 360 bans
Grimstroke
269 picks · 189 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:13
Team Secret 59%Brame 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 40:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingSumaiL
Phantom AssassinFocus
Axeiceiceice
WindrangerThuG
Void SpiritNisha
Sand KingSkyLark
ChenPuppey
Skywrath MagedEsire
RubickYapzOr
Crystal MaidenSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction missed38:24
Team Secret 61%Brame 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Brame in 59:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSumaiL
Sand KingThuG
Monkey KingNisha
Anti-MageFocus
Marsiceiceice
Chaos KnightSkyLark
Skywrath MageYapzOr
MiranadEsire
PugnaPuppey
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
Game 3prediction missed20:31
Team Secret 61%Brame 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Brame in 42:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritNisha
TerrorbladeFocus
TinySumaiL
Dragon KnightThuG
Brewmastericeiceice
MarsSkyLark
HoodwinkYapzOr
Keeper of the LightdEsire
BanePuppey
Dark WillowSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 71%
Series resultBrame 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3