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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
D2 Hustlerswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Resolut1on · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Zayac · 12 games
58%
Marci
Marcisignature
Zayac · 10 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 10 games
80%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Puppey · 8 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Crystallis · 7 games
71%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Crystallis · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
43%

D2 Hustlers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
990 picks · 669 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
661 picks · 485 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
594 picks · 947 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
561 picks · 437 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
531 picks · 353 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 518 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
512 picks · 1123 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
487 picks · 363 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:14
Team Secret 70%D2 Hustlers 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 42:19.
Game 2prediction missed10:32
Team Secret 70%D2 Hustlers 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Secret — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 47:24.
Game 3prediction missed6:31
Team Secret 70%D2 Hustlers 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Secret — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 28:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 70%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3