Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
D2 Hustlersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
Miranasignature
Puppey · 8 games
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 7 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 7 games
Techies
Zayac · 7 games
Death Prophetsignature
Armel · 6 games
Pugnaoften banned
Puppey · 6 games
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
707 picks · 595 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 488 bans
Beastmaster
440 picks · 1073 bans
Doom
426 picks · 748 bans
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 1010 bans
Tiny
380 picks · 363 bans
Enchantress
373 picks · 539 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 818 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:5
Team Secret 71%D2 Hustlers 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:06.
Game 2prediction correct34:7
Team Secret 71%D2 Hustlers 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 26:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 71%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2