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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 7 games
43%
Io
Iooften banned
Puppey · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 6 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Puppey · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
YapzOr · 6 games
33%

Gaimin Gladiators

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 25 games
64%
Bane
Banesignature
tOfu · 21 game
62%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 19 games
63%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
tOfu · 19 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Ace · 18 games
61%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
tOfu · 17 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 15 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
BOOM · 15 games
93%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
533 picks · 451 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
452 picks · 683 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 545 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
396 picks · 284 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 591 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
343 picks · 796 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
338 picks · 548 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 626 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:33
Team Secret 51%Gaimin Gladiators 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 28:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNisha
57% · 162 games47% · 77 games
Dawnbreakerdyrachyo
Dawnbreaker
Huskar
HuskarCrystallis
47% · 22 games51% · 159 games
Storm SpiritBOOM
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
Beastmastericeiceice
58% · 154 games43% · 55 games
Night StalkerAce
Night Stalker
Zeus
ZeusZayac
53% · 35 games40% · 41 game
Crystal MaidentOfu
Crystal Maiden
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernPuppey
47% · 86 games49% · 127 games
IoSeleri
Io
Game 2prediction correct35:38
Team Secret 53%Gaimin Gladiators 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 47:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawiceiceice
42% · 72 games47% · 83 games
Dawnbreakerdyrachyo
Dawnbreaker
Zeus
ZeusNisha
55% · 33 games49% · 77 games
LeshracBOOM
Leshrac
Weaver
WeaverCrystallis
62% · 115 games47% · 77 games
ViperAce
Viper
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPuppey
56% · 74 games46% · 70 games
TusktOfu
Tusk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanZayac
51% · 45 games41% · 32 games
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct31:14
Team Secret 53%Gaimin Gladiators 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 45:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCrystallis
51% · 208 games56% · 154 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Timbersaw
TimbersawNisha
50% · 150 games52% · 196 games
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
Monkey King
Tidehunter
Tidehuntericeiceice
51% · 232 games45% · 195 games
Void SpiritBOOM
Void Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkZayac
47% · 169 games56% · 173 games
WeavertOfu
Weaver
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernPuppey
49% · 100 games45% · 141 game
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 54%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3